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The Senate Special Committee on Redistricting met on February 2 to discuss the matter of redistricting in the Brownsville/Harlingen/McAllen Area. The purpose of the regional hearing was to solicit public input on the 2021 legislative redistricting process and provide the public an opportunity to share relevant details about their community. A video of the hearing can be found here.

 

The HillCo report below is a summary of remarks intended to give you an overview and highlight of the discussions on the various topics discussed. This report is not a verbatim transcript; it is based upon what was audible or understandable to the observer and the desire to get details out as quickly as possible with few errors or omissions.

 

Opening Comments and Questions from Previous Presentations

  • Sen. Lucio – In the testimony you provided us last week you informed us that the Lower RGV was one of the largest drivers of population growth in Texas; From the population projections do you see the growth in our region to be a trend that will continue in upcoming years?
    • Potter – Yes, certainly if you look at the Lower RGV it has been growing significantly. There are counties that have lost population, but many are growing significantly
    • Potter – Expects growth to continue, especially with continued job creation
  • Sen. Lucio – Is it safe to conclude that the Lower RGV is primarily minority population, specifically Hispanic descent?
    • Potter – Yes
  • Sen. Lucio – Would you agree Lower RGV is one of the most economically challenged regions in the state? Would you expect that to continue?
    • Potter – Yes, economically the population tends to be on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum
    • Potter – I would expect that to continue, but I am optimistic we will see economic growth in the valley
  • Sen. Lucio – Our region has struggled with resources specifically education and some say our region’s low tax pays do not help; would you agree that our region is one of the most heavily populated with low-income population?
    • I think your description is accurate
  • Sen. Lucio – A large portion of our population only speaks Spanish; do you expect an undercount because of this? Is this something new or is this historically true based on the ethnic makeup of our population?
    • I would expect that there would be some undercount in the lower RGV after we have had the opportunity to look at the data
  • Sen. Lucio – As a follow-up, would these factors (Spanish speaking, door visit timing, pandemic, lack of internet, etc.) contribute to an undercount being greater than in other regions such as Austin?
    • Especially compared to Austin I would say yes; there are areas that will be accurately counted in the RGV as well
    • Would expect overall there will probably be a greater RGV undercount than in more urban areas
  • Sen. Lucio – Our region was hit the earliest and hardest by the pandemic, especially when census visits were originally scheduled; concerns that door-to-door visitation was not taken on by original, trained census workers
  • Sen. Lucio – The workers who made visits were not bilingual or as heavily trained; have you heard similar concerns? Do you believe this will add to undercount?
    • Not familiar with what you just described; I have not heard stories or read news reports, which does not mean it is not true, I just have not heard about it
    • If you cannot speak the same language as another it could affect the accuracy as research

 

Presentation

Dr. Lloyd Potter, Texas State Demographer

  • Provides explanation of Texas State Demographer tasks and responsibilities
  • Apportionment File sent to POTUS by 4/30/2021
  • Redistricting File (PL94-171) will be delivered after July 31, 2021
    • Texas historically one of the first states to receive this information, since session will be over state may not be prioritized
    • PL 94-171 File data includes: race, Hispanic origin, 18 and older, occupancy status, and group quarters by type
  • Once apportionment number is determined the ideal SD size will be released; ideal SD size plus or minus 5% but some districts may need to be adjusted to meet threshold size
  • From 2010-2019, the Permian Basin area and RGV show growth while other rural areas have lost population; Hidalgo and Webb counties are driving much of the growth
  • Provides TX map depicting percent population change 2010-2019 in counties with current senate districts; fastest growth in suburban ring counties
  • Ideal Census Tract is 4,000; Bureau plans on splitting or combining tracts to get close to this number
  • Postulates Hispanic population will exceed non-Hispanic white population sometime this year or next; Latino population has contributed almost 52% of population change
    • Asian population is also growing
  • Highlights resources on population growth and redistricting available through Texas Demographic center (link)
  • Highlights Census Bureau resources on quality assessments (link) and provides Census Bureau resources on Count Question Resolution (CQR) (link)
  • Sen. Hinojosa – Can you elaborate on whether Hispanic growth is focused in South Texas?
    • It is all over the state, but about 90% of population in lower RGV is Latino; which is driving a lot of the population change
    • Latino population growth seen more in urban corners; also, there’s in-migration in more rural areas
  • Sen. Hinojosa – Are they growing at the same pace or faster/slower?
    • Post-recession its slower; is a healthy natural increase, still receiving immigrants from Mexico and Asian countries
  • Sen. Hinojosa – Large number of immigrants living within check points and the RG River, many live in the most rural/hard to reach areas and they are difficult to count; when you make your estimate, how does the ACS data differ from the Census data?
    • ACS is a sample survey, not a count, using mail; there are people who do not have mailable addresses so if those units are in the sampling frame, the Census will send an enumerator to that house to get a sample
    • Most houses are in the Census Bureau Master Address File, believes it to be as complete as possible
    • May be some challenges with language but theoretically if that happened, they would identify someone who shared the household’s language and send them back
  • Sen. Hinojosa – Quite a few Mexican Internationals have homes on both sides of the border; how are they counted?
    • If their housing unit appears to not be vacant, they would be counted
  • Sen. Hinojosa – Since the ACS data differs, how should we think about what the data corresponds to?
    • The idea of the Census is that it is a set point in time; April 1
    • ACS is constantly in the field asking people to complete surveys over a 5-year period; to reduce sampling error the Census Bureau collects data over a longer period
    • Race and ethnicity (more stable factors) are accurate within 5-year sample, but less stable factors like employment are not
  • Sen. Alvarado – You mentioned growth from natural births, do you have any information you can drill down that there are less people coming from across the Mexican border?
    • Yes, I can provide that data, there are estimates showing there are fewer immigrants coming over from Mexico
  • Sen. Alvarado – Do you have that data from the last 5-10 years?
    • We have that and we can provide it

 

Public Testimony

James Seifert, Self

  • Brownsville homeowner; works with some of the poorest communities in the US
  • Need the right to elect representatives who will advocate for their needs; do not have that with the way the current maps are drawn
  • Highlights change in Census process due to COVID; calls for transparent drawing of maps and acceptance of edits to those maps

 

Lucy Frost, All on the Line TX

  • Requests fair drawing of districts, speaks out against gerrymandering

 

Chris Boswell, Mayor of Harlingen

  • Description of Cameron County and its medical and academic resources; addresses past mistakes of the US Census
  • Have done their own analysis using similar tools to the State Demographer to estimate number of households in Harlingen to estimate 94,000+ residents, over 80,000 with the reduction estimate
  • Believes there to be an undercount of at least 25%, and other cities throughout the RGV could come to this conclusion as well
  • Praises current representatives, but requests count adjustments
  • Sen. Hinojosa – I hope you will take advantage of the resources Dr. Potter made available to submit these findings to the Census

 

Closing Remarks

  • Sen. Hinojosa – Encourage as much public participation as possible; anyone is welcome to testify even twice