The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, grid operator for most of the state, has implemented a first-of-its-kind wind forecasting tool designed to help system operators prepare for large and sudden changes in wind production.
On March 5th, ERCOT recorded a new high for instantaneous wind output of 6,272 MW – serving 19 percent of the total load at the time.
The new forecasting tool developed by AWS Truewind, LLC in collaboration with ERCOT system engineers will help ERCOT plan for “wind ramps” – large and rapid changes in wind power production. Ramps can be caused by air mass changes, thunderstorms, cold fronts, nocturnal stabilization, pressure changes, and other transient atmospheric events.
The large-ramp alert tool makes calculations six hours ahead to warn the system operators of the risk of large and rapid increases or decreases in wind output. The ramp forecast calculates the values of magnitude and duration, and estimates the probability of a large ramp event beginning in a particular interval.