HillCo Partners Economic Update
HillCo Partners closely monitors and complies information concerning the current economic climate/trends of the state. These factors, including Texas’ bond rating, are aspect that create an overall picture of the state’s general economic health. The following information has been compiled in order to create a more complete snapshot of the current economic status of Texas.
Labor Market Information
The most recent labor market information for the state is from April 2022:
April 2022 Texas LMI (Texas Workforce Commission):
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
- Total Non-Farm Employment: 13,284,500
- Jobs Change Over the Year: 742,000
- Annual Growth Rate: 5.9%
In comparison to March 2022, the unemployment rate has dropped by 0.1% and compared to UI rates a year ago it has decreased by 1.9%. Texas has added 62,800 nonagricultural jobs in April 2022 and total nonfarm jobs reached 13,284,500. In April, Leisure and Hospitality gained 13,500 jobs over the month. Education and Health Services added 8,800 positions, followed by Financial Activities employment which grew by 8,700 jobs. Mining and Logging added 6,600 jobs which is a 3.2% increase from March 2022. (Texas Workforce Commission).
Texas Employment
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas employment expanded by 5.7% in April after growing by 2.7% in March. Oil and gas saw the fastest growth followed by manufacturing and financial activities. Texas payroll employment reached 2.7% above pre-pandemic levels. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Employment Forecast predicts 3.7% job growth this year.
State Sales Tax Revenue
The Texas Comptroller is the states’ chief tax collector, accountant, revenue estimator and the agency is responsible for keeping the books for the multi-billion-dollar business of state government (Texas Comptroller). Additionally, the Comptroller monitors economic data around the state monthly and publishes regular periodicals. Every month, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar releases information on state sales tax revenue. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced at the beginning of May that state sales tax revenue totaled $3.8 billion in April, 12.8% more than in April 2021. The majority of April sales tax revenue is based on sales made in March and remitted to the agency in April. Comptroller Hegar noted that April state sales tax collections reached double digit growth which reflects both inflation and continued expansion in real economic activity and employment. He noted that the “strongest growth was in receipts from sectors driven by business spending, particularly the oil and gas mining sector” which has passed pre-pandemic levels. In terms of consumer spending, Hegar said “slowing growth in receipts from retail trade may signal shifts in consumer spending back toward pre-pandemic patterns.” (Texas Comptroller).
Major rating agencies, Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s (S&P), issue ratings that characterize the state’s ability to repay debt. These agencies provide investors with assessments of the trustworthiness of potential investments in the state and possible risks involved. Additionally, highly rated borrowers typically pay lower interest costs. As of August 2021, Texas is top rated by all three of these agencies.
Texas’ Ratings (Texas Bond Review Board)
Fitch: AAA
Moody’s: Aaa
S&P: AAA