Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar has released the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) for the fiscal 2020-21 biennium. As a result of legislative actions and an updated economic forecast, the Comptroller’s office now expects revenue available for general spending in 2020-21 to total about $121.76 billion, up 9.6 percent from the 2018-19 biennium. This revenue will support the $118.86 billion in general-purpose spending called for by the 86th Legislature and will result in a final balance available for certification of $2.89 billion.
Hegar commented, “In fiscal 2019, the Texas economy continued to grow at rates among the highest in the nation. We are projecting continued expansion of the Texas economy in this biennium. The most likely scenario is one of steady expansion at a pace below that of the 2018-19 biennium. Risks to this estimate include ongoing uncertainty about trade and national economic policy, slowing global economic growth and volatility in energy prices resulting from instability and potential conflict in the Middle East.”
In fiscal 2020, the Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF) and State Highway Fund (SHF) each will receive $1.67 billion in transfers from the General Revenue Fund from severance taxes collected in fiscal 2019 and a transfer of $1.59 billion in fiscal 2021 from severance taxes collected in fiscal 2020. After accounting for interest and investment earnings by the ESF, along with expenditures authorized by appropriations made in recent legislative sessions, we project a fiscal 2021 ending ESF balance of $9.35 billion.
In 2015, the Legislature passed and voters approved a constitutional amendment that requires a transfer of sales tax revenue to the SHF. As a result, $2.5 billion of state sales tax revenue will be deposited to the SHF in each year of the 2020-21 biennium. That same constitutional amendment also stipulated that a portion of motor vehicle sales tax revenue in excess of $5 billion collected in any fiscal year also be transferred to the SHF. We project that the threshold will be met for the first time in fiscal 2020 and that $35 million will be transferred to the SHF from motor vehicle sales tax collections in the 2020-21 biennium.
For more information please see the Comptroller’s infographic on the CRE. Detailed tables and the CRE can be found on the Comptroller’s website.
