The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state grid operator and manager of the Texas wholesale electric market, expects to use a variety of resources to meet anticipated electric demands this summer.
That includes nearly 2,000 MW of capacity that had been “mothballed,” or taken off-line for an indefinite period of time. Owners have decided to return those units to service, including about 430 megawatts (MW) of capacity that was not available last summer.
“Even with this additional generation, we expect that there may be some calls for conservation when energy use is particularly high or if generation supplies are impacted by unplanned outages,” said ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett. “Having nearly 2,000 MW of additional generation available this summer will help reduce the likelihood of rotating outages.”
ERCOT has released its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for summer 2012. ERCOT expects to have nearly 74,000 MW of generation resources available to serve summer needs, including some previously mothballed resources. Generators have notified ERCOT that they plan to bring these plants back on-line to meet high summer demand. Additionally, following a federal court ruling late last year, some units that anticipated being unable to run under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) will be able to operate this summer.
The summer 2012 assessment assumes weather will be warmer and drier than the 15-year historical average but less extreme than 2011, based on information from the National Weather Service and from Telvent, which provides weather forecasting data for ERCOT. Forecasts also indicate the possibility of tropical storm activity early in the summer and the potential for more variable rain.
Drought, a concern for power plant reliability in 2011, is not expected to be a large factor in electric reliability this summer as winter and spring rains helped bring most power plant cooling lakes within their operational ranges.
As for a longer-term look, ERCOT will release the semi-annual Capacity, Demand and Reserves report later this month. That report will provide an updated 10-year high-level forecast showing projected energy use and the anticipated generation resources that will serve those needs. That report is based on average long-term temperatures and other conditions and does not consider specific variations that are included in the SARA.
