The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) anticipates there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve system-wide forecasted peak demand this winter and in spring 2020.
ERCOT has released its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report for the upcoming winter season (December 2019 – February 2020) and its preliminary assessment for the spring season (March – May 2020).
“We studied a range of potential risks and believe there will be sufficient operating reserves to meet the forecasted peak demand,” said ERCOT Manager of Resource Adequacy Pete Warnken.
The winter SARA includes a 62,257 MW winter peak demand forecast. The forecast is based on normal weather conditions during peak periods, from 2003 through 2017.
ERCOT’s all-time winter peak demand record was set on Jan. 17, 2018, when demand reached 65,915 MW between 7 and 8 a.m.
More than 82,000 MW of resource capacity is expected to be available for peak demand this winter, including 136 MW of winter-rated resource capacity (gas-fired and wind) that has become commercially operable since the release of the preliminary winter SARA.
An additional 768 MW of planned winter-rated resource capacity is also expected to be available for the winter season. This includes new gas-fired generation as well as wind and utility-scale solar projects.
ERCOT also expects to have sufficient generation available to meet system-wide demand in spring 2020. Based on expected spring peak weather conditions, the preliminary SARA report for spring 2020 anticipates a seasonal peak demand of 64,233 MW.
Based on ERCOT’s preliminary assessment, an additional 2,903 MW of planned resource capacity comprised of gas-fired units, wind and utility-scale solar is expected to be available to meet the spring peak demand. The final spring SARA report for 2020 will be released in early March.