On May 1, ERCOT, the electric grid operator and manager of the electric market for most of Texas, released its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for summer 2014, a preliminary outlook for fall, and an update to its Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR)report. The CDR is a 10-year view of anticipated generation and forecast system peak demand, based on 12-year average weather conditions and other factors that affect electric use during peak demand periods.
ERCOT forecasters expect about 68,000 megawatts (MW) of peak electric demand this summer, slightly less than the all-time record set on Aug. 3, 2011. Nearly 74,000 MW of installed generation capacity is expected to be available.
By August, six new generating units totaling 2,153 megawatts (MW) of combined capacity are expected to begin operations, with 2,112 MW of that coming from four new facilities: Ferguson Replacement, Panda Sherman, Panda Temple I and Deer Park Energy Center.
“We expect this summer, for most of the ERCOT region, to be milder than the past four years, with some areas experiencing temperatures that are hotter than normal,” said ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman.
Drought conditions that continue throughout Texas are not expected to create operational problems for generators this summer, but ERCOT continues to monitor these risks.
The Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report, also released May 1 shows a planning reserve margin of 14.3 percent for summer 2015, remaining above and just below the 14 percent mark through 2017. That margin represents the amount of available generation resources that would exceed peak demand based on a load forecast that assumes normal, or 12-year average, weather over the next 10 years.
These reports and other SARA and CDR reports are available athttp://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource/.