During the Tuesday House Appropriations hearing, Chief Revenue Estimator John Heleman offered the following overview of the Texas Economy and State Revenue Collections:
- Current national unemployment rate: 9.9 percent. The Texas economy began losing jobs in Fall 2008. The Texas economy has now begun to slowly add jobs. The current unemployment rate in Texas is 8.2 percent, unchanged from February.
- New home construction has slowed sharply from the pace of 2004, 2005, and 2006. Existing home sales have slowed as well. Prices have remained steady or drifted down slightly. The inventory of existing homes peaked at about 7½ months worth of inventory this past summer, was below the 7 months mark for five months, and now sits at 7.1 months.
- The due date for margin tax this fiscal year is May 17th.
- Fiscal 2010 year-to-date oil production tax revenue is 10.2 percent above that of the same period one year earlier. The price for WTI, while declining from the summer peak, was still high in the first months of fiscal year 2009.Fiscal 2010 year-to-date natural gas production tax revenue is 65.2 percent below that of the same period in 2009. Sharply declining prices, steady production, and large refunds of tax previously paid related to hi-cost gas wells are contributing factors.
- The Rainy Day Fund ended the 2008-09 biennium with a balance of $6.7 billion. Following a transfer last fall of $870 million, the fund now has a balance of approximately $7.6 billion. Following a small transfer in the fall of 2010 and modest interest earnings, the fund is expected to have a balance of $8.2 billion at the end of the 2010-11 biennium.
Heleman also noted sales tax returns are beginning to rebound after months of double-digit declines. Although there are some individuals who predict the sales tax revenue shortfall for Texas could reach as high as $3 billion, Heleman said sales tax collections in the fiscal year that started Sept. 1 are actually about $1 billion behind projections.