Although Texas is still the fastest growing state in the country, we have also seen declining public school enrollment over the last three years. While enrollment data for this school year is not available yet, TEA released a report on changes in state demographic trends showing that public school enrollment in the fall of 2022 did not quite recover from the significant decline in state public school enrollment during the fall of 2020. Furthermore, a 2.2% decline is projected by the fall of 2030. This projected decline is due to lower birth rates and less international migration. Interstate migration has offset these declines in the past but is not projected to fully offset them in the future. TEA data shows that dropouts increased 34% in the 2020-21 school year, with the greatest increase of dropouts in high school, where the percentage of dropouts increased from 1.9% in the 2018-19 school year to 2.4% in the 2020-21 school year. Over 46,000 Texas students were counted as dropouts, while more than 79,000 exited Texas public schools for other reasons: 30,000 moved to out-of-state public or private schools and almost 30,000 left to be homeschooled.
According to Bob Templeton, Vice President of Education for Zonda, during the 2020-21 school year Texas ISD public school enrollment declined by 122,000 students. The state typically has seen annual growth between 30,000 to 60,000 and is still the fastest growing state in the country. For the 2021-22 school year, state enrollment returned to a more normal amount of growth of 55,780 students, indicating that students who left during the 2020-21 school year did not return. Bob commented, “So, far early enrollment trends for the 2022-23 that we are seeing with our clients is that enrollments are again not rebounding from the pandemic drop. We still have our fast growth suburban clients, however the change in the housing market due to the shifting interest rates is causing challenges for younger families. It’s the perfect storm. Delay in finishing new homes due to construction supply chain delays and shortage of labor causing a significant increase in construction times. At the same time the rising interest rates are pricing out families from being about to afford the resulting increase in monthly payments. This causing challenges for families and school districts.”
Without a doubt, changes in enrollment are impacting school districts’ fiscal planning for this and future years. 