As if the ESSER cliff wasn’t enough of a worry, school district administrators are concerned about another potential fiscal cliff: declining enrollment.
School Disrupted 2022, a study released in September by national consulting firm Tyton partners, highlighted enrollment trends across the country that are also being seen in Texas. Nationally, the Tyton study estimated a 9% decrease in public school enrollment, a decline of almost four million students from spring 2021 to spring 2022. This resulted in part from an increase in the number of dropouts, lower birth rates, and more deferments—families who hold young children back for a later start. However, the greatest decrease came from families choosing alternatives to public education. According to Tyton’s data, almost 3.7 million students nationally left public schools during the pandemic to enroll in charter, private, or home-based schools. The study points out that by the time data was collected in the spring of 2022, most campuses were open, and vaccines were widely available. The study notes that “This post-pandemic decline in K-12 public school enrollment suggests that this is no temporary anomaly but may instead reflect a tipping point.”
Parents who opted their children out of public schools most frequently cited concerns about academic quality and safety, such as bullying and gun violence, while fewer mentioned COVID-19 health protocols. Political beliefs did not seem to have a large impact in parents’ decisions, as the study noted, “Conservative, liberal, and moderate parents alike ranked academic quality and safety as their top motivations.” Parents choosing alternatives to public school seemed to be seeking an academic environment with more flexible scheduling and more personalized, student-centered learning experiences in smaller groups with multiple learning sites, taking learning beyond the classroom. The chart below shows the academic preferences for parents who chose an alternative to public schools for their children.
With state and federal funding based on student enrolment and attendance, what will this mean for district budgets? As the Tyton study notes, the cost of education remains mostly the same despite lower attendance, enrollment, and revenue. Competition from private and charter schools intensifies the pressure on public schools to offer the kinds of quality programs, flexible scheduling, and personalized learning environments that may help them attract and retain students, while maintaining fiscal efficiency.